{"id":3883,"date":"2025-03-18T10:58:12","date_gmt":"2025-03-18T09:58:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/end-of-the-reverse-yankee-boom-interest-rate-turnaround-in-europe-changes-the-market-for-euro-us-bonds\/"},"modified":"2025-04-03T10:59:13","modified_gmt":"2025-04-03T08:59:13","slug":"end-of-the-reverse-yankee-boom-interest-rate-turnaround-in-europe-changes-the-market-for-euro-us-bonds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/end-of-the-reverse-yankee-boom-interest-rate-turnaround-in-europe-changes-the-market-for-euro-us-bonds\/","title":{"rendered":"End of the Reverse Yankee boom? Interest rate turnaround in Europe changes the market for Euro US bonds"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.25.2&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;50px||50px||true|false&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.0&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; positioning=&#8221;absolute&#8221; position_origin_a=&#8221;bottom_center&#8221; vertical_offset=&#8221;-45px&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||||false|false&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;||||false|false&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; z_index=&#8221;3&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_image src=&#8221;https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Adobe-Express-file-1.jpg&#8221; title_text=&#8221;Adobe Express &#8211; file (1)&#8221; align=&#8221;center&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; z_index=&#8221;1&#8243; width_tablet=&#8221;25%&#8221; width_phone=&#8221;45%&#8221; width_last_edited=&#8221;on|desktop&#8221; border_radii=&#8221;on|360px|360px|360px|360px&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.0&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; header_5_font_size=&#8221;20px&#8221; text_orientation=&#8221;center&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h5>Steffen Ullmann<\/h5>\n<p><span>Senior Portfolio Manager &#8211; <\/span><span>Investment Grade<br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; custom_padding__hover=&#8221;|||&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize! <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize! <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; text_font_size=&#8221;20px&#8221; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Reverse Yankees &#8211; Euro bonds issued by US companies &#8211; started the year strongly, but the interest rate turnaround in Europe has put an abrupt end to the boom. The shrinking interest rate differential is making EUR bonds increasingly unattractive as a source of refinancing &#8211; is there now a threat of a lasting market shift? <\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize! <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize! <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h5>Reverse Yankees set the tone at the start of the year<\/h5>\n<p><span class=\"fontstyle0\">In view of the expected transatlantic interest rate divergence at the start of the year, there were many indications of a boom in reverse Yankees &#8211; similar to 2014, when the ECB lowered its interest rates while the Fed raised them. The first few months confirmed this trend: Reverse Yankees accounted for around 37% of new issues on the EUR investment grade market and were in high demand from investors. The average oversubscription ratio (cover ratio) was 4.36x compared to 3.69x for European issues (source: Bloomberg, own calculation, 01.01.-07.03.2025)  <\/span> <\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize! <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize! <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;||0px|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h5>Rise in interest rates ends the attractive refinancing environment<\/h5>\n<p><span class=\"fontstyle0\">The sudden rise in yields on German government bonds as a result of the German government&#8217;s turnaround in fiscal policy has fundamentally changed this expectation. The previously attractive interest rate differential from a US perspective &#8211; of over 2% &#8211; has narrowed considerably, meaning that reverse Yankees have largely lost their refinancing advantages in the EUR market, particularly after currency hedging. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\"><span><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=&#8221;https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Chart-1-2.png&#8221; alt=&#8221;Interest rate differential between US and German government bonds  &#8221; title_text=&#8221;Chart 1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; width=&#8221;75%&#8221; module_alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;-10px||29px|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p><em>  Source: Bloomberg, USA 10y (USGG10YR Index) and Germany 10y (GTDEM10Y Govt), own calculation; period: 31.01.2023 to 10.03.2025.  <\/em><\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize! <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize! <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;||0px|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>The issue volume is likely to fall significantly in the short term, as EUR bonds are no longer an attractive source of refinancing for US issuers. Whether this is merely a temporary dip or a structural shift in the market depends largely on the further development of interest rates. However, there is currently much to suggest that a longer-term phase of rising Reverse Yankee issues &#8211; comparable to 2014 to 2018 &#8211; is unlikely.  <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\"><span><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=&#8221;https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Chart-2-2.png&#8221; alt=&#8221;US issuers in the euro corporate bond market&#8221; title_text=&#8221;Chart 2&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; width=&#8221;75%&#8221; module_alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;-10px||29px|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg Euro AGG Corporate Excl Financials (LECFTREU Index) and own calculation; as at 10.3.2025.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.25.2&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;4.25.2&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.25.2&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_toggle title=&#8221;Risks&#8221; open_toggle_background_color=&#8221;RGBA(255,255,255,0)&#8221; closed_toggle_background_color=&#8221;RGBA(255,255,255,0)&#8221; icon_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; open_icon_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; border_width_all=&#8221;0px&#8221; border_width_bottom=&#8221;1px&#8221; border_color_bottom=&#8221;#93642e&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fontstyle0\">Price losses due to increases in yields and\/or higher risk premiums are possible. A total loss cannot be ruled out either. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fontstyle0\">Past performance is not an indication of future results, nor can future performance be guaranteed.<\/span> <\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_toggle][et_pb_toggle title=&#8221;Disclaimer&#8221; open_toggle_background_color=&#8221;RGBA(255,255,255,0)&#8221; closed_toggle_background_color=&#8221;RGBA(255,255,255,0)&#8221; icon_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; open_icon_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; border_width_all=&#8221;0px&#8221; border_width_bottom=&#8221;1px&#8221; border_color_bottom=&#8221;#93642e&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p><span>This marketing communication within the meaning of the German Securities Trading Act is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. 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This information document is not directed at US citizens or persons permanently resident in the USA, nor at legal entities domiciled in the USA, nor may it be distributed in the USA  <\/span><\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_toggle][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Steffen Ullmann Senior Portfolio Manager &#8211; Investment GradeReverse Yankees &#8211; Euro bonds issued by US companies &#8211; started the year strongly, but the interest rate turnaround in Europe has put an abrupt end to the boom. The shrinking interest rate differential is making EUR bonds increasingly unattractive as a source of refinancing &#8211; is there [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3581,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nicht-kategorisiert"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3883","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3883"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3883\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3581"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3883"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3883"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3883"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}