{"id":8211,"date":"2025-08-01T10:46:46","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T08:46:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/prospects-q3-2025\/"},"modified":"2026-10-23T09:22:02","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T07:22:02","slug":"prospects-q3-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/prospects-q3-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Prospects Q3 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;50px||50px||true|false&#8221; hover_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221; vertical_offset=&#8221;-75px&#8221; vertical_offset_last_edited=&#8221;on|desktop&#8221; sticky_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243; vertical_offset_tablet=&#8221;-90px&#8221; vertical_offset_phone=&#8221;-90px&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; positioning=&#8221;absolute&#8221; position_origin_a=&#8221;bottom_center&#8221; vertical_offset=&#8221;-45px&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||||false|false&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;||||false|false&#8221; hover_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221; sticky_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; z_index=&#8221;3&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_image src=&#8221;https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Adobe-Express-file-1.jpg&#8221; title_text=&#8221;Adobe Express &#8211; file (1)&#8221; align=&#8221;center&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; z_index=&#8221;1&#8243; width_tablet=&#8221;25%&#8221; width_phone=&#8221;45%&#8221; width_last_edited=&#8221;on|desktop&#8221; hover_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243; border_radii=&#8221;on|360px|360px|360px|360px&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221; sticky_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243;][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.0&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; header_5_font_size=&#8221;20px&#8221; text_orientation=&#8221;center&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h5>Steffen Ullmann<\/h5>\n<p><span>Senior Portfolio Manager &#8211; <\/span><span>Investment Grade<br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; custom_padding__hover=&#8221;|||&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; text_font_size=&#8221;20px&#8221; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Half a year of upheaval\u2014yet risk premiums remain virtually unchanged. Is the calm in the credit market deceptive? Or does it reflect genuine resilience? Read on to learn where we see the positives and negatives in the current credit environment.   <\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; module_id=&#8221;R\u00fcckschau&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; text_font=&#8221;Celias &#8211; medium||||||||&#8221; text_font_size=&#8221;21px&#8221; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||10px||false|false&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" id=\"testfall-marktumfeld\">1. Review: The First Half of the Year as a Test Case for a New Market Environment<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>The sheer number of events in the first half of 2025 could easily have filled a decade: Germany\u2019s abrupt shift in fiscal policy, including the reform of the debt brake; the U.S.\u2019s so-called \u201cLiberation Day\u201d [sic] with far-reaching import tariffs; ongoing global conflicts; and the gradual erosion of once-stable alliances\u2014all of these factors are having a lasting impact on the current market environment.<\/p>\n<p>For investors, the key question is: Are we witnessing the beginning of a profound period of structural upheaval with an uncertain outcome\u2014or is this merely short-term noise? A look at the bond markets so far suggests the latter\u2014because despite significant volatility resulting from a variety of events, spread levels remained virtually unchanged in the first half of the year. <\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; text_font=&#8221;Celias &#8211; medium||||||||&#8221; text_font_size=&#8221;21px&#8221; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||10px||false|false&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Spreadentwicklung der Kreditm\u00e4rkte 2025<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=&#8221;https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Entwicklung-der-Kreditmaerkte-2025-aktualisiert.png&#8221; alt=&#8221;Interest rate differential between US and German government bonds  &#8221; title_text=&#8221;Credit Market Trends 2025: Updated&#8221; align=&#8221;center&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; width=&#8221;60%&#8221; max_width=&#8221;100%&#8221; module_alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||60px||false|false&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;|0px||||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_image src=&#8221;https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Chart-1-Q3.png&#8221; alt=&#8221;Interest rate differential between US and German government bonds  &#8221; title_text=&#8221;Chart 1 Q3&#8243; align=&#8221;center&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; width=&#8221;70%&#8221; module_alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;|0px||||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; text_font_size=&#8221;12px&#8221; text_line_height=&#8221;1.4em&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;-10px||29px|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">OAS on government bonds, Source: Bloomberg, EUR IG (LECFTREU), EUR HY (H23969EU), USD IG (LUAITRUU), USD HY<br \/>(LF98TRUU), EM IG (I04276US), EM HY (BEBGTRUU); Period: Dec. 31, 2024, through June 30, 2025<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; text_font=&#8221;Celias &#8211; medium||||||||&#8221; text_font_size=&#8221;21px&#8221; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||10px||false|false&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" id=\"unternehmen-puffer\">2. Business Conditions: Disciplined companies have built up financial buffers<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>Die Unternehmensbilanzen zeigen sich weiterhin in solider Verfassung. Ein Gro\u00dfteil der Emittenten weist <span>&nbsp;<\/span>They are generating stable margins and robust free cash flows. At the same time, thanks to strict financial discipline, debt ratios remain low, and the companies have built up buffers to weather difficult times. <\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; text_font=&#8221;Celias &#8211; medium||||||||&#8221; text_font_size=&#8221;21px&#8221; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||10px||false|false&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Corporate Debt &#8211; A Regional Overview<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=&#8221;https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Chart-2-Q3.png&#8221; alt=&#8221;Interest rate differential between US and German government bonds  &#8221; title_text=&#8221;Chart 2 Q3&#8243; align=&#8221;center&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; width=&#8221;70%&#8221; module_alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;|0px||||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; text_font_size=&#8221;12px&#8221; text_line_height=&#8221;1.4em&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;-10px||29px|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Bloomberg; Net Debt \/ EBITDA (Field); Europe (MSCI Europe Equal Weight), U.S. (MSCI USA Equal Weight),<br \/>Emerging Markets (MSCI EM Equal Weight); Time Period: December 2014 \u2013 June 2025<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; text_font=&#8221;Celias &#8211; medium||||||||&#8221; text_font_size=&#8221;21px&#8221; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||10px||false|false&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" id=\"unsicherheit-fragmentierung\">3. Macroeconomic Environment: Structural uncertainty and political fragmentation are still being mitigated<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>The economic environment in the first half of 2025 was marked by ongoing uncertainty. Signs of a slowdown in global growth momentum are mounting\u2014with the U.S. as the main driver. Leading indicators point to a slowdown in the robust growth seen in recent years: Purchasing Managers\u2019 Indices (PMIs) have cooled, and the OECD\u2019s leading indicators signal an economic slowdown in the U.S. At the same time, it should be noted that labor market data and other real economy indicators paint a robust picture. Given recent history\u2014in which leading indicators predicted a recession that ultimately did not materialize\u2014this divergence warrants special attention.    <\/p>\n<p>In contrast to the U.S., growth in Europe appears to be stabilizing despite setbacks caused by trade policies. The more expansionary fiscal policy emanating from Germany is likely to have a positive impact in the medium term. Emerging markets remain the global engine of growth in nominal terms, even though growth momentum varies significantly by region. The growth gap relative to the U.S. and Europe remains at an elevated level.   <\/p>\n<p>The monetary policy stances of the Fed and the ECB are very different: While the Federal Reserve remains in a wait-and-see mode in light of persistently high inflation figures, the ECB is already nearing the end of its cycle of interest rate cuts. The resulting yield spread between the euro and the U.S. dollar has led to higher FX hedging costs\u2014particularly at the index level, where investing in U.S. dollar-denominated bonds has become less attractive as the additional costs significantly erode the achievable return. Furthermore, the ECB\u2019s shift in monetary policy has already caused the yield curve in the eurozone to steepen noticeably. Investors are once again being rewarded for longer maturities, while the money market is becoming increasingly less attractive.   <\/p>\n<p>Geopolitical tensions remain a dominant risk factor. The U.S.\u2019s protectionist trade policies\u2014such as the expansion of import tariffs\u2014are increasing uncertainty along global supply chains. The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are amplifying the new underlying geopolitical noise.  <\/p>\n<p>On the commodities front, the picture is mixed: While oil prices are under pressure\u2014not least due to OPEC+\u2019s strategy, which prioritizes market share over price stability\u2014copper is benefiting from the expansion of electric grids and renewable energy, as well as increased demand for electric vehicles. Commodities remain heavily influenced by industrial policy decisions\u2014as exemplified by the recent U.S. announcements to impose import tariffs of up to 50%. <\/p>\n<p>Despite this, the primary market in particular has remained remarkably stable. After a brief period of shock, issuance volume quickly rebounded\u2014driven by strong investor demand, as reflected in high oversubscription rates and low issuance premiums. Strong underlying demand for corporate bonds remains a key pillar.  <\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; text_font=&#8221;Celias &#8211; medium||||||||&#8221; text_font_size=&#8221;21px&#8221; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||10px||false|false&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" id=\"bewertungen-selektion\">4. Evaluation: Lack of dispersion\u2014selection is important<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>Assessing credit markets is challenging: risk premiums are near historic lows\u2014with no discernible dispersion among issuers of varying credit quality<span>. A traditional environment that fosters active credit management.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>While the persistently high total returns keep the credit sector fundamentally attractive despite tight spreads, the low risk premiums at the index level currently offer little protection. It is precisely in this environment that careful selection separates the wheat from the chaff: it allows investors to identify high-quality names with fair valuations\u2014and to consistently avoid overvalued followers. <\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; text_font=&#8221;Celias &#8211; medium||||||||&#8221; text_font_size=&#8221;21px&#8221; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||10px||false|false&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Risk Premiums \u2013 Percentiles (10 Years)<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=&#8221;https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Risikopraemien-Perzentile.png&#8221; alt=&#8221;Interest rate differential between US and German government bonds  &#8221; title_text=&#8221;Risk Premiums &#8211; Percentiles&#8221; align=&#8221;center&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; width=&#8221;70%&#8221; module_alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; custom_padding=&#8221;|0px||||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; text_font_size=&#8221;12px&#8221; text_line_height=&#8221;1.4em&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;-10px||29px|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">OAS on government bonds, Source: Bloomberg, HAGIM, EUR Investment Grade (LECFTREU), EUR High Yield (H23969EU), USD Emerging Market (H29190EU), BBB &#8211;<br \/>A (EUR) (own calculation), Sub-Senior (EUR) (own calculation), B\u2013BB (EUR) (own calculation); Period: December 31, 2013, through June 30, 2025.<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; text_font=&#8221;Celias &#8211; medium||||||||&#8221; text_font_size=&#8221;21px&#8221; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||10px||false|false&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" id=\"chancen-risiken\">5. Outlook: Opportunities and Risks<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text content_tablet=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which high single-digit returns can still be achieved on corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_phone=&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The risk premiums on corporate bonds are low and the hoped-for interest rate cuts could fail to materialize!  <\/p>\n<p>The question arises: where to put the money? We show you a niche segment in which returns in the high single-digit range can still be achieved with corporate bonds. <\/h2>\n<p>&#8221; content_last_edited=&#8221;off|desktop&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; header_2_font_size=&#8221;25px&#8221; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p><strong>Opportunities<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Gesch\u00e4ftsmodelle mit geringe<span>r<\/span> Nachfrageelastizit\u00e4t und hoher Preissetzungsmacht<\/li>\n<li>Structural winners that benefit, among other things, from the energy transition<\/li>\n<li>Issuers with low credit ratings but < 1 >a solid balance sheet and limited refinancing needs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul><\/ul>\n<p><strong>Risks<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Chemical Sector: Structural and Cyclical Challenges Continue to Weigh Heavily<\/li>\n<li>Companies with unhedged foreign exchange risks, particularly in emerging markets<\/li>\n<li><span>Defensive sectors with high debt and a rising interest burden<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In an increasingly challenging and structurally changing market environment, we see specific opportunities primarily in business models with a non-cyclical nature. Sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and leisure services are characterized by stable cash flows, low demand elasticity, and strong pricing power\u2014attributes that offer valuable resilience during volatile periods and contribute to the stability of portfolio returns. <\/p>\n<p>In the commodities and cyclical industries segment, we selectively focus on structural winners of the transition. We find bonds issued by companies with robust balance sheets and a clear strategic focus on the energy transition particularly attractive\u2014such as copper producers that stand to benefit from the expansion of electric infrastructure. <\/p>\n<p>We also see attractive prospects for issuers in the infrastructure and regulatory sectors\u2014particularly energy grid operators, which generate predictable cash flows through government-supported investment programs. <\/p>\n<p>By contrast, we are cautious about companies that are facing a sharp increase in capital expenditures due to regulatory changes without receiving adequate compensation for the associated risk.<\/p>\n<p>We place particular emphasis on refinancing capacity\u2014especially in the high-yield segment. In this segment, we prefer issuers <span>&nbsp;<\/span>with conservative debt ratios, a stable liquidity base, and reliable access to capital markets. In an environment of rising financing costs, the wheat is separated from the chaff. <\/p>\n<p>We continue to view the chemical sector with skepticism, as it is suffering from weak fundamentals and unfavorable industry trends. Despite an increase in risk premiums in some cases, the challenges have not yet been fully reflected in the balance sheets and cash flows of many issuers. <\/p>\n<p>In emerging markets, we avoid issuers with significant currency risk and no hedging. Our focus is clearly on companies from Central and Eastern Europe with euro-denominated bonds. <\/p>\n<p>Finally, we remain vigilant even toward supposedly defensive sectors\u2014particularly where high debt levels coincide with a persistently higher interest rate environment< 2 >. European telecommunications companies are a case in point: Despite stable business models, their capital structures harbor significant risks that are not fully reflected in adequate risk premiums across the board. <\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.25.2&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;4.25.2&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.25.2&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_toggle title=&#8221;Risks&#8221; open_toggle_background_color=&#8221;RGBA(255,255,255,0)&#8221; closed_toggle_background_color=&#8221;RGBA(255,255,255,0)&#8221; icon_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; open_icon_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; border_width_all=&#8221;0px&#8221; border_width_bottom=&#8221;1px&#8221; border_color_bottom=&#8221;#93642e&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fontstyle0\">Price losses due to increases in yields and\/or higher risk premiums are possible. A total loss cannot be ruled out either. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fontstyle0\">Past performance is not an indication of future results, nor can future performance be guaranteed.<\/span> <\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_toggle][et_pb_toggle title=&#8221;Disclaimer&#8221; open_toggle_background_color=&#8221;RGBA(255,255,255,0)&#8221; closed_toggle_background_color=&#8221;RGBA(255,255,255,0)&#8221; icon_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; open_icon_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.27.4&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; border_width_all=&#8221;0px&#8221; border_width_bottom=&#8221;1px&#8221; border_color_bottom=&#8221;#93642e&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>This marketing communication within the meaning of the German Securities Trading Act<br \/>(Wertpapierhandelsgesetz) is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed<br \/>as personal investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold<br \/>any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions and statements<br \/>contained in this document reflect the current assessment on the date of publication. This information does not constitute a complete analysis of all material facts relating to any country,<br \/>region or market. This is not to be considered as financial analysis.<br \/>If statements are made about market developments, returns, price gains or other asset<br \/>growth as well as risk ratios, these merely constitute forecasts for whose occurrence we assume<br \/>no liability. Past performance, simulations or forecasts in particular are not a reliable<br \/>indicator of future performance. Assets can go up as well as down. All information has been carefully compiled; partly with recourse to information from third parties.Individual details may prove to be no longer or no longer fully accurate, in particular as a result of the passage of time, changes in the law, current developments on the markets, possibly at short notice, and may change at any time without prior notice. Therefore, no guarantee is given that all the information is correct, complete and up to date.<br \/>Please inform yourself independently about all costs relevant to you. Maintaining a custody<br \/>account may incur costs; ongoing bank charges may also be incurred. Transaction costs depend<br \/>on the asset class: For government bonds and collateralised bonds such as mortgage<br \/>bonds, they average around 0.02 percent, for corporate bonds 0.085 percent. For less liquid<br \/>bonds, the transaction costs can also be significantly higher than 0.25 per cent. It should also<br \/>be noted that transaction costs can temporarily be significantly higher during periods of market<br \/>stress. For all products sold by HAGIM, all relevant cost information is made available<br \/>prior to purchase.<br \/>The information is based on our assessment of the current legal and tax situation. If tax or<br \/>legal matters are affected, these should be discussed by the addressee with their tax advisor<br \/>or lawyer. Investments in financial instruments are associated with both opportunities and<br \/>risks. The handling of conflicts of interest at HAGIM is published online in the legal notice on<br \/>https:\/\/www.ha-gim.com\/en\/legal-information. The information contained in this document<br \/>is intended for professional clients and eligible counterparties only. This information document<br \/>is not directed at US citizens or permanent residents, nor to legal entities domiciled in<br \/>the USA, nor may it be distributed in the US.                <\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_toggle][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Half a year of upheaval\u2014yet risk premiums remain virtually unchanged. Is the calm in the credit market deceptive? Or does it reflect genuine resilience? Read on to learn where we see the positives and negatives in the current credit environment.   <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6732,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Beitragsbild.png","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[40,1,34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investment-grade","category-nicht-kategorisiert","category-specialist-article"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8211","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8211"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8211\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8213,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8211\/revisions\/8213"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6732"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}