[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.25.2″ _module_preset=”default” min_height=”96px” custom_margin=”50px||50px||true|false” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.27.0″ _module_preset=”default” positioning=”absolute” position_origin_a=”bottom_center” vertical_offset=”-20px” vertical_offset_tablet=”-70px” vertical_offset_phone=”-80px” vertical_offset_last_edited=”on|phone” position_origin_a_tablet=”bottom_center” position_origin_a_phone=”bottom_center” position_origin_a_last_edited=”on|phone” position_origin_f_tablet=”” position_origin_f_phone=”” position_origin_f_last_edited=”on|desktop” position_origin_r_tablet=”” position_origin_r_phone=”” position_origin_r_last_edited=”on|desktop” custom_margin=”||||false|false” custom_padding=”||||false|false” positioning_tablet=”absolute” positioning_phone=”absolute” positioning_last_edited=”on|desktop” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.25.2″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Steffen_Ullmann.webp” title_text=”Steffen_Ullmann” align=”center” _builder_version=”4.27.0″ _module_preset=”default” border_radii=”on|360px|360px|360px|360px” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.0″ _module_preset=”default” header_5_font_size=”20px” text_orientation=”center” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n
Senior Portfoliomanager Investment Grade [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_button button_text=”News-PDF” button_alignment=”center” _builder_version=”4.27.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”10px||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][\/et_pb_button][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.16″ custom_padding=”18px|||||” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.16″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” min_height=”1095.1px” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.16″ custom_padding=”|||” global_colors_info=”{}” custom_padding__hover=”|||” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.7″ header_2_font_size=”25px” background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content” text_font_size=”20px” sticky_enabled=”0″]<\/p>\n Die aktuellen Entwicklungen im Automobilsektor reflektieren eher eine Normalisierung als rezessive Niveaus. Noch k\u00f6nnen die meisten Automobilhersteller dieses Risiko durch ihre derzeit robusten Bilanzen ausgleichen. Doch die Branche muss nun ihren Worten Taten folgen lassen. Daher bleiben wir trotz h\u00f6herer Spreads selektiv. <\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.7″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content” text_font=”Celias – medium||||||||” text_font_size=”21px” sticky_enabled=”0″]<\/p>\n Normalization Instead of Recession:<\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.7″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content” sticky_enabled=”0″]<\/p>\n The latest news from the automotive industry is alarming\u2014especially for the German labor market. Even though the news is not encouraging, from a bondholder\u2019s perspective, it is important to note that the revised profitability outlooks are close to historical medians. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the current trend points toward normalization rather than recessionary levels. <\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.7″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content” text_font=”Celias – medium||||||||” text_font_size=”21px” sticky_enabled=”0″]<\/p>\n Profitability of Automobile Manufacturers<\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Profitabilitaet-der-Automobilhersteller-e1788953748807.jpg” title_text=”Profitability of Automobile Manufacturers” admin_label=”Bild” _builder_version=”4.27.7″ _module_preset=”default” width=”70%” module_alignment=”center” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content” sticky_enabled=”0″][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n Source: Trailing 12-Month EBIT Margin, Bloomberg, company data, own presentation, period: 2009 through September 30, 2024<\/em><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.7″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content” text_font=”Celias – medium||||||||” text_font_size=”21px” sticky_enabled=”0″]<\/p>\n The crisis is hitting strong balance sheets:<\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.7″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content” sticky_enabled=”0″]<\/p>\n Current operational developments are compounded by the industry\u2019s long-term, structural challenges: in our view, regulation, competition, and technological change are significantly increasing business risk in the automotive sector. For now, most automakers are still able to offset this risk thanks to their currently robust balance sheets. <\/span><\/p>\n However, risk premiums in the automotive sector reacted sharply to the recent profit warnings and widened significantly compared with the rest of the market. In particular, the sector\u2019s credit curve has become noticeably steeper than it was six months ago and now reflects the current environment and the sector\u2019s long-term structural trends much more accurately. <\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.7″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content” text_font=”Celias – medium||||||||” text_font_size=”21px” sticky_enabled=”0″]<\/p>\n Automotive Sector: Action, Not Just Words, Is Needed:<\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.27.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.7″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content” text_font=”Celias – medium||||||||” text_font_size=”21px” sticky_enabled=”0″]<\/p>\n Changes in credit curves over the past 6 months<\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Veraenderung-der-Kreditkurven-in-den-letzten-6-Monaten-e1788953861797.jpg” title_text=”Ver\u00e4nderungen der Kreditkurven in den letzten 6 Monaten” _builder_version=”4.27.7″ _module_preset=”default” width=”70%” module_alignment=”center” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content” sticky_enabled=”0″][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.25.2″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.25.2″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.25.2″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_toggle title=”Risks” open_toggle_background_color=”RGBA(255,255,255,0)” closed_toggle_background_color=”RGBA(255,255,255,0)” icon_color=”#000000″ open_icon_color=”#000000″ _builder_version=”4.25.2″ _module_preset=”default” border_width_all=”0px” border_width_bottom=”1px” border_color_bottom=”#93642e” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n Price losses due to increases in yields and\/or higher risk premiums are possible. A total loss cannot be ruled out either. Past performance is not indicative of future results, nor can future performance be guaranteed.<\/p>\n [\/et_pb_toggle][et_pb_toggle title=”Disclaimer” open_toggle_background_color=”RGBA(255,255,255,0)” closed_toggle_background_color=”RGBA(255,255,255,0)” icon_color=”#000000″ open_icon_color=”#000000″ _builder_version=”4.27.0″ _module_preset=”default” border_width_all=”0px” border_width_bottom=”1px” border_color_bottom=”#93642e” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n This marketing communication, as defined by the Securities Trading Act, is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as personal investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy, sell, or hold a financial instrument, or to adopt an investment strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n The opinions and statements contained in this document reflect the current assessment as of the date of publication. The information provided does not constitute a complete analysis of all material facts relating to a country, region, or market. No financial analyses are provided. <\/span><\/p>\n Any statements regarding market trends, returns, price gains, or other increases in asset value, as well as risk metrics, are merely forecasts, and we assume no liability for their realization. In particular, past performance, simulations, or forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Asset values may rise or fall. All information has been carefully compiled, in some cases based on information from third parties. Individual pieces of information may, in particular due to the passage of time, changes in the law, or current market developments, prove to be no longer accurate\u2014or no longer fully accurate\u2014even at short notice, and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Therefore, no guarantee is provided as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information. <\/span><\/p>\n \n Please research all costs relevant to you on your own. Maintaining a securities account may incur costs; in addition, ongoing bank fees may apply. Transaction costs depend on the asset class: For government bonds and secured bonds such as mortgage bonds, they average about 0.02 percent; for corporate bonds, 0.085 percent. For less liquid bonds, transaction costs can also be significantly higher than 0.25 percent. It should also be noted that transaction costs may temporarily be significantly higher during periods of market stress. For all products distributed by HAGIM, all relevant cost information is provided prior to purchase. <\/span><\/p>\n \n The information provided is based on our assessment of the current legal and tax situation. To the extent that tax or legal issues are involved, the recipient should discuss them with his or her tax advisor or attorney. <\/span><\/p>\n Investments in financial instruments involve both opportunities and risks. HAGIM\u2019s policy on handling conflicts of interest is published online at https:\/\/www.ha-gim.com\/rechtlichehinweise. The information contained herein is intended solely for professional clients or eligible counterparties. This information document is not intended for U.S. citizens, persons permanently residing in the United States, or legal entities domiciled in the United States, nor may it be distributed in the United States. <\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_toggle][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Current developments in the automotive sector reflect a return to normalcy rather than recessionary conditions. For now, most automakers are still able to offset this risk thanks to their currently robust balance sheets. However, the industry must now follow through on its promises. Therefore, we remain selective despite higher spreads. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3187,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[40,34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8220","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investment-grade","category-specialist-article"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8220","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8220"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8220\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8222,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8220\/revisions\/8222"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3187"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8220"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8220"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ha-gim.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8220"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
<\/span><\/p>\n Source: Bloomberg EUR AGG Corporate ex Financials Total Return Index (LECFTREU Index), our own calculations, as of October 2, 2024<\/em>
<\/span><\/span><\/h5>\nDespite the more attractive valuations, we believe the automotive sector has reached a clear \u201cshow me\u201d moment. Before an overweight position can be considered, companies must first demonstrate that they are taking the right steps to address current challenges. This involves not only short-term cost reductions but also long-term strategic adjustments to changing market dynamics. We will closely monitor how automakers optimize their production capacities, drive innovation, and adapt their business models to electrification and digitalization. Only when we see concrete progress in these areas and a sustainable improvement in operating performance becomes apparent will we consider overweighting the sector. Until then, we will remain selective. <\/span>
<\/span><\/h5>\n