Debt Reduction Instead of Dividends

15. Apr 2024

More and more companies with weaker credit quality in the investment-grade segment are cutting their dividends to prevent a downgrade into the high-yield segment. However, this shift offers exciting opportunities for active investors. Learn more in this Spotlight!

A weak growth environment, higher costs, and persistently higher refinancing costs have increased pressure on the companies with the weakest credit quality within the EUR investment-grade universe. Companies—most of which are already struggling with operational problems—run the risk of losing their investment-grade rating in this environment. Every downgrade further exacerbates the situation.

Dividend Cuts Over Time

We have been observing for some time now that CFOs of companies with weaker credit quality (BBB or lower) are not sitting idly by, but are in some cases taking drastic measures to defend their company’s credit rating.
In addition to significant dividend cuts, divestitures of business units or capital increases have been announced or already implemented with the clear intention of strengthening the company’s balance sheet.
As early as 2023, companies with lower credit ratings in the EUR investment-grade universe implemented substantial dividend cuts (at least 50% compared to the previous year). Specifically, 7% of companies rated BBB or lower cut their dividends. This represents nearly a doubling compared to the previous year. Based on analyst expectations and corporate announcements, further substantial dividend cuts are expected to follow in 2024.

Closing Words

For some companies, dividend cuts may come too late to prevent a downgrade into the high-yield segment. With the right selection, however, the segment within the EUR investment-grade universe rated BBB or lower continues to offer attractive opportunities.
Source: Bloomberg, percentage of publicly traded companies in the Bloomberg Pan-European Aggregate: Industrial Index with a dividend decline of at least 50% compared to the previous year (analyst estimate). As of March 28, 2024.
Risks

Price losses due to rising yields and/or increased risk premiums are possible. Even a total loss cannot be ruled out. Past performance is not indicative of future results, nor can future performance be guaranteed.

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