European High-Yield Bonds

30. Aug 2024

Returns You Can Count On!¹

European high-yield bonds offer greater predictability of returns due to their high coupons and low duration. Through skillful portfolio construction, these returns can also be tailored to investors’ individual needs.

Greater predictability thanks to attractive features:

High-yield bonds are distinguished from other fixed-income asset classes by two key characteristics: high coupons and low duration. This combination makes them particularly attractive:

  1. High coupon rates lead to predictable returns and cushion against potential spread and interest rate volatility.
  2. A low duration generally results in lower sensitivity to changes in interest rates and spreads

Taken together, these two factors mean that even over relatively short time periods (5–6 years), the predictable coupon component accounts for a significantly higher share of total performance than the uncertain contribution from changes in interest rates and spreads. As a result, the realized return approaches the initial yield after just a few years, allowing for better return planning than in other bond segments with lower coupons and longer durations.

Flexibility as the Key to Success:

However, it is important to note that the expected return on an index investment is not guaranteed, especially if the investment period ends during periods of significant market turmoil (such as during the 2008 financial crisis or the rise in interest rates in 2022). This is not, however, a phenomenon specific to high-yield investments.

However, historical experience shows that the flexibility to extend the holding period by one year has almost always made it possible to recoup temporary losses in the past, resulting in a return similar to the yield to maturity.² All other things being equal, this effect is all the more pronounced the shorter the remaining maturity of the bonds is.

Star Returns and Realized Performance

Star Returns and Realized Performance
Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg Euro High Yield ex Financials BB-B 3% Capped Total Return Index (H23969EU Index); Annualized performance of the index over 5 years relative to the yield to worst; if at least 75% of the yield to worst has not been achieved after 5 years, the holding period is extended by a one-time period of 1 year; all semesters from June 2001 through June 2019; excluding management fees and transaction costs

Important requirements for investors:

An investment in an index-tracking high-yield product requires that the investor:

  1. can withstand volatility and
  2. has the flexibility to postpone potential withdrawal plans if the market is experiencing a significant drawdown at the planned withdrawal time.

Without this flexibility, the return achieved over a period of three, five, or even seven years may differ significantly from the initial yield and, in some cases, may even be negative.

Top returns and realized annual returns:

“Interest Rate Cut Cycle” (narrow definition according to Bloomberg)
Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg Euro High Yield ex Financials BB-B 3% Capped Total Return Index (H23969EU Index); Annualized performance of the index over 3/5/7 years relative to the yield to worst; all semesters from June 2001 through June 2019; excluding management fees and transaction costs

Customized Solutions:

For investors with a particularly low tolerance for volatility or who have capital needs at specific points in time, there are special product options:

Short-Duration Portfolio:

  • Invest only in bonds with a maximum of three or four years remaining until maturity.
  • Significantly reduces the volatility of a high-yield investment.
  • Enables rapid accumulation of liquidity by halting the reinvestment of maturing bonds.

Maturity Portfolio:

  • Ideal for investors with a predetermined payout date.
  • Align the maturity dates of the bonds as closely as possible with the payment date.
  • Minimizes reinvestment risk and bond price risk at the time of payment.

Leadership Strategy

  • Ideal for investors with multiple predefined payout dates.
  • combines multiple maturity portfolios with maturities that coincide with the respective payout dates.
  • Minimizes reinvestment risk and bond price risk at the respective payout dates.

Conclusion:

European high-yield bonds offer an attractive investment profile for risk-tolerant investors due to their high coupons and low duration. Through targeted portfolio construction, as utilized in HAGIM’s CIO Series, volatility and payout profiles as well as credit risks can be tailored to individual client preferences.
Active management focused on fundamental credit analysis also helps minimize default risks and thereby achieve better performance.

As experienced asset managers with core expertise in fixed-income strategies, the experts at HAGIM are here to help you design investment solutions tailored to your needs.

ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index
Source: Bloomberg (Bloomberg Euro HY ex Financial, H23969EU Index)
¹If you structure it right!
²The default risk in the high-yield segment is already factored in here, as the performance includes defaults in the form of delistings at prices significantly below par.
Risks

Price losses due to increases in yields and/or higher risk premiums are possible. A total loss cannot be ruled out either. Past performance is not indicative of future results, nor can future performance be guaranteed.

Disclaimer

This marketing communication, as defined by the Securities Trading Act, is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as personal investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy, sell, or hold a financial instrument, or to adopt an investment strategy.

The opinions and statements contained in this document reflect the current assessment as of the date of publication. The information provided does not constitute a complete analysis of all material facts relating to a country, region, or market.

Any statements regarding market trends, returns, price gains, or other increases in asset value, as well as risk metrics, are merely forecasts, and we assume no liability for their realization. In particular, past performance, simulations, or forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Asset values may rise or fall. All information has been carefully compiled, in some cases based on information from third parties. Individual pieces of information may, in particular due to the passage of time, changes in the law, or current market developments, prove to be no longer accurate—or no longer fully accurate—even at short notice, and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Therefore, no warranty is provided as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information. The information is based on our assessment of the current legal and tax situation. To the extent that tax or legal matters are addressed, the recipient should discuss these with their tax advisor or attorney. Investments in financial instruments involve both opportunities and risks. HAGIM’s policy on handling conflicts of interest is published online at www.ha-gim.com/rechtliche-hinweise. The information contained herein is intended solely for professional clients or eligible counterparties. This information document is not intended for U.S. citizens or persons permanently residing in the United States, nor may it be distributed in the United States.

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